The perfect brains: AI programs that predicted Trump's win



The shock of Donald Trump’s upset victory has begun to put on off. Now the seek for solutions begins. Particularly: How on this age of massive information assortment and data-crunching analytics may so many polls, financial election fashions, and surveys–even these by prime Republican pollsters—have been so fallacious going into election day?

Some acquired it proper—Geda, the mystic monkey from China, and Felix, a Russian polar bear, for starters. A survey of Halloween presidential candidate masks additionally predicted a Trump presidency, as did “The Simpsons” again in 2000. And there are a variety of Democratic strategists wishing they’d given extra credence this previous summer time to Michael Moore’s evaluation of the political panorama, particularly within the Rust Belt.

In search of indicators of intelligence

For individuals who like their predictions brewed with a splash extra information, a man-made intelligence system developed by Indian startup efficiently predicted not solely the Democratic and Republican primaries, however every presidential election since 2004. To give you its predictions, the MogIA system makes use of 20 million information factors from on-line platforms akin to Google, YouTube, and Twitter to gauge voter engagement.

MogIA discovered that Trump was topping Barack Obama’s on-line engagement numbers through the 2008 election by a margin of 25 %—spectacular even after factoring within the larger participation in social media right this moment.